Terrorists at the Peace Table: How Intractable Conflicts End
I remind myself that from the ashes of endless other intractable conflicts a seemingly impossible Phoenix of Peace has arisen.
Artwork©KristenKoza at kirstenkozaart
“You cannot negotiate peace with someone who has come to kill you.”— Golda Meir
“Peace is not absence of conflict; it is the ability to handle conflict by peaceful means.” — Ronald Reagan
Twelve hundred Israelis murdered on October 7th; 135 of 250 hostages still captive in Gaza; over 200,000 displaced Israelis; 28,000 Gazans slaughtered and three times that many injured; 80% of Gazans displaced; most of Gaza in ruins….with no end in sight. Concerning now are threats from Hezbollah, Houthis, ISIS — who could care less about the Palestinians — and if the USA and Iran ramp up attacks, the conflict expands beyond the enmity between Palestinians and Israelis.
Yes, the current situation appears grim, and the intractable 80-year Israeli/Palestinian conflict feels hopeless. On bad days, I cave in to despair; on better days, as a congenitally pre-disposed peace activist, I remind myself that from the ashes of endless other intractable conflicts a seemingly impossible Phoenix of Peace has arisen.
The particulars may vary, but intractable conflicts are fought over a combination of land, resources, religion, trade, autonomy, statehood, cultural values (and the ever-so fragile egos of male humans). Current history is replete with still unresolved conflicts the likes of Kashmir, Korea, Tibet, Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo, etc., as well as struggles that have ended such as Algeria, South Africa, El Salvador and Guatemala. (Upon closer examination in Rwanda the still-simmering pre-genocide tensions are simply being tamped down by the authoritarian government of Paul Kagame, so I don’t include it here.) Inequality, injustice, isolated acts of violence still occur, but the merciless murder and mayhem have ceased or at least been contained.
Long-Term Change Has Little To Do With Forgiveness
Intuitively the psychological interpersonal processes of empathy, understanding and forgiveness seem basic to transforming bitter adversaries into partners for peace, yet in reality altering negative attitudes towards “the enemy” contributes little to conflict resolution warring parties. Actual, long-term change occurs from more pragmatic reasons in several ways, often in combination.
1. FRUSTRATION. Frustration can end a conflict when one or both sides concludes the human and financial price is no longer worth it. Examples are the retreat of the USA from Afghanistan, and U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam in 1975. Similarly, mutual frustration may provide a ceasefire and/or an opening for international actors to intervene.
2. INTERVENTION. While the US intervention in 1979 in the Lebanese Civil War was a colossal failure, the U.S.-led negotiated settlement after the Yom Kippur War between Israel and Egypt did succeed, as well as did the intervention in Northern Ireland’s sectarian conflict, and the wars in former Yugoslavia.
Counterintuitively, and perhaps disappointingly, civil conflicts ending through negotiated settlement are far more likely by a factor of three to relapse into violence than those ending through military victory. Negotiated settlements, peace deals, cease-fires often turn out to be merely temporary interruptions in cycles of violence i.e., Sudan, Ethiopia, Syria, Myanmar, etc.
3. VICTORY. The most common — and the longest lasting — end to a conflict is an overwhelming victory. Perhaps the best example is Germany (and Japan). Germany’s bellicose past didn’t end after its mere defeat in WWI, but only after the Nazis were trounced in WWII, major cities leveled, and half a million Germans were killed. In hindsight it’s plausible that the Allied “Rain of Hell” on a congenitally militaristic Germany was necessary to transform it into the peaceful democracy of today.
Yet with China and the USSR lurking in the wings, the Allies realized Germany (and Japan) must not be too weak either. Post-war plans formulated while the war was being prosecuted were implemented immediately upon surrender. Billions of dollars in Marshall Plan aid were pumped into the former enemies, anti-fascist education and foundations of democracy laid, industries revitalized, and the former enemies were transformed into bastions of prosperity and peace. A mere seven years after the war, Germany signed the Reparations Agreement with Israel, and to this day is one of its staunchest defenders.
Israel And Egypt Make Historic Peace
No Egyptian or Israeli (certainly not Golda!) could have imagined in their wildest dreams that within five years of the devastating Yom Kippur War a peace deal would be signed. It remains one of the defining events in Middle East history, transforming the entire geopolitical landscape, as well as likely saving untold countless lives.
Despite four attacks on Israel in 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973, Egypt became the first Arab neighbor to accept Israel’s standing peace offer. Though defeated in the Yom Kippur War, Egyptian and Syrian leaders were able to claim that the surprise attack and significant Israeli casualties restored their sense of honor after the shame of losing the Six Day War. Additionally, making peace would help Anwar Sadat break away from the USSR, and bring Egypt the economic benefits of the US-led western nations.
I remember well November 20, 1977, the entire kibbutz gathered in the dining room glued to the (only) TV, as Prime Minister Menachim Begin and President Ephraim Katzir greeted President Anwar Sadat as he stepped off the plane, and all the cheering Israelis lining the road to Jerusalem as his motorcade passed. (Even several stalwart kibbutzniks sniffled away tears.) The next day as Sadat addressed the Knesset, the initial suspicions of his motives quickly transformed into enthusiasm and joy, and this courageous gesture of Israel’s biggest enemy was a significant psychological breakthrough for Israelis desperate for peace.
Led by the personal mediation of President Jimmy Carter, Sadat’s visit paved the way for negotiations — tense and intense, with both sides repeatedly threatening to walk out — at Camp David, and the peace agreement formally signed at the White House on March 26, 1979. Egypt recognized the State of Israel; Israeli military and civilian withdrawal from the Sinai; an Egyptian agreement to keep the Sinai demilitarized; and Cessation of State of War. The rest of the Arab world was furious, and the Arab League suspended Egypt, with most Arab countries cutting diplomatic ties. Perhaps not unsurprisingly, on October 6, 1981, Sadat was assassinated by extremist Muslims.
It’s no minor miracle that to this day the peace treaty has endured despite regime changes in Israel and Egypt (including a brief takeover by the radical Muslim Brotherhood), and ongoing turmoil and wars in the Middle East. All of this was crucial in paving the way for future peace agreements with Jordan in 1994, the recent Abraham Accords, and possibly soon with Saudi Arabia.
A Possible Path Forward For Israel And Gaza
Any political leader (such as Netanyahu) who declares, “We don’t negotiate with terrorists…!” is simply a liar playing the tough guy for his base. Rare is a conflict that hasn’t ended without having to face across the negotiating table the loathed enemy.
Despite the near total obliteration of Gaza and tens of thousands of casualties, most of Hamas’ leaders and two thirds of its fighters remain alive, 75% of the tunnels remain intact. Hamas as a theocratic ideology will never be defeated, and since Hamas will never surrender nor destroy Israel, the only possible end to the conflict is that Israel will become frustrated, succumb to public pressure, and call for a cease fire, for now. Then — exasperated — international forces (the USA, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Europe) will intervene, calling the two sides to the negotiation table that will be fraught with endless obstacles, and take several years to agree on.
Only a fecund imagination could picture Sinwar, the genius mastermind of the October 7th attack, at the negotiating table with his sociopath enabler Bibi, but remember that sworn enemy Yasser Arafat, the PLO leader responsible for thousands of deaths, did actually manage to sit in a room with Itzhak Rabin and Bill Clinton hammering out the Oslo Agreement in 1995.
Self-serving Bibi Netanyahu must be removed from power — likely to happen when the war winds down — along with his coalition of war-mongering, right-wing miscreants. Frontrunner in polls to replace him is more moderate Benny Gantz, former IDF chief and leader of the National Unity party.
The Palestinian leader likely to emerge from the ashes of the current conflict will be Marwan Barghouti, nicknamed “Palestine’s Nelson Mandela” who was sentenced in 2002 to five life terms. His imprisonment in an Israeli prison has elevated him as a patriot and hero in the eyes of Palestinians, many who are discontented by the corruption and self-serving nature of Hamas and Fatah leaders. Barghouti has emerged in Palestinian polls as most popular among young people, far ahead of PA leader Abbas, and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Many international leaders — and even Israel itself — think he is the only person capable of uniting rival Palestinian political groups. It is not inconceivable that if Israel (and the US) anoint Barghouti as The One, then he could be released from prison…and maybe become the Nelson Mandela of Palestine.
At the individual level, humans are small, weak, and our ability to coalesce into effective tribes (societies, countries) has allowed us to overcome individual limitations and deal with outside threats as a group. Over evolutionary history, people are motivated to defend the protective group, even willing to sacrifice themselves and/or other individuals to increases group survival. We’ve now reached a time in history where technology — weapons of mass destruction –— could easily eliminate not only the enemy but also those you are protecting at the same time. Idealism and hope may seem to many naïve and foolish, but our only other choice is to surrender to violence, war and death. I choose the former, and dare you to choose it also.
“Life without idealism is empty indeed. We just hope or starve to death.” ― Pearl S. Buck
Please consider donations to Palestinian Children’s Relief Fund and Doctors Without Borders.
Author, journalist, photographer and world traveler Bill Strubbe was brought up Catholic in California, volunteered on a kibbutz in 1975, and eventually converted to Judaism. He is now a dual Israeli/American citizen.
